One Century Down, One to Go?

John Hofmeister, President of Houston based Shell Oil Company, was featured on the Charlie Rose show two nights ago. With current gasoline prices reaching $4/gallon in the US, it was fascinating to hear his thoughts on the future for energy consumption.

At the current rate, the United States consumes roughly a "swimming pool" amount of oil every second. Furthermore, Mr. Hofmeister estimated that the natural global petroleum reserves will be depleted in less than a century. With the acceleration of growth in emerging countries (China, India, etc), this may even be a conservative estimate.

With Ford and GM celebrating 100 year anniversaries in the last several years, what does this say for their future?

Is the internal combustion engine over the hill? Will it be able to make the switch to efficient alternative energy? Moreover, what is the source? Hydrogen? Celluosic Ethanol? Ambient Energy?

How will automotive design change to meet the energy crisis needs of tomorrow? If you have a suggestion, you may want to sketch it out and post it on the updated Local Motors website.

On another note, MIT has an interesting article on a new chip co-developed by Texas Instruments that's power consumption is so low that devices may even be able to be recharged using the owner's body heat!

Detroit Electric

Yesterday, I visited the observation deck of Rockefeller Center for the first time after living in NYC for six months. I was fascinated to learn about about John D. Rockefeller Jr. - his actions to erect the building during the depression, his teetotaler lifestyle, and his "Detroit Electric" car.

It appears that history is repeating itself - our economy is experiencing a recession and the "Detroit Electric" name and century-old design is now resurfacing. Although the Anderson Electric Car Company is extinct, the rights were purchased by a joint venture between Zap and China's Youngman Automotive Group. I am sure the new design will get more than 65 miles at 6-25 mph on a single charge as it did in 1917, however, I doubt it will be produced in Detroit this time.

Zap is based in Santa Rosa, California - a state that pushing stringent emissions regulations, has a booming local economy, and now holds a record number of startup car companies. Most of these startups are for specialty vehicles (Zap&Youngman - carriage car, Tesla - sports car, Fisker - sports car) , but as they capture traditionally unattractive portions of the market they will move upstream and may disrupt the larger automakers.

So what about Detroit? Their response? The companies? The economy? The future?

Are they too distracted with their own problems to respond? Will they cede their share to the new entrants? Will the electric motor disrupt the internal combustion engine? More to come...

A123

It wasn't that long ago that I was exposed to the amazing potential of electric vehicles at Wrightspeed and Tesla - not just horsepower, but also energy efficiency. If you look at the internal combustion automobile as a system, the energy input is gas and the output is primarily kinetic energy (motion, friction, heat, sound). The loss is large, but in the past is was easier to tap and refine the source, oil.

In the next decade, I believe that electric vehicles will play a larger role in the automotive industry than they do today. The reality is that if you exclude the source of the electricity, the total loss in the electric automotive system is diminutive.

As companies (e.g. A123 systems) continue to improve their cell capacity, the rise of electric vehicles is increasing faster than we may expect. Companies that don't plan accordingly for these advanced powertrains may be lost in the dust. More importantly, regulation may force their hand into conformity or extinction.